Climate change strikes: Lightning patterns change with global warming

Nowadays, the environment is dealing with numerous issues. These issues are adversely affecting our environment. Now, new research has shown that climate change could change lightning patterns across Europe.

Keywords:  environment, changing weather, climate change, lightning patterns 

This study was led by Newcastle University and Met Office and is published in the journal Environmental Research Letters. This study finds that there could be a picture of changing weather patterns which includes:

• Frequent storms with more energy, but locally less lightning. It is mainly due to less cloud ice and frozen particles in storm clouds, with warming
  
• More lightning at high altitudes  also including over the Alps
• Less lightning on lower terrain in central Europe and over the sea- subject to less certain circulation changes.

The researchers found that these changes could increase the risk of wildfires over the mountains and in Northern Europe.

Lead author of the study, Dr. Abdullah Kahraman, Senior Researcher in Severe Weather and Climate Change, School of Engineering, Newcastle University and Visiting Scientist -- Understanding Regional Climate Change (URCC), Met Office Hadley Centre, said, "While more frequent lightning strikes over mountains and in Northern Europe might trigger more wildfires in higher level forests, we are going to see relatively fewer lightning hazards over more populated areas of Central Europe".

The latest Met Office climate simulations with the highest local details in meteorological and topographical features are down to 2km. Unlike previous studies, it detailed individual thunderstorms and their crucial processes that resulted in lightning being simulated across Europe. 

Professor Lizzie Kendon, Met Office Science Fellow, and co-author on the paper said, "These new very high-resolution climate projections, which have a resolution on a par with weather forecast models, are providing new insights into future changes in convective storms and their associated hazards -- such as heavy downpours, lightning, hail and wind gusts. Changes in lighting in this study are in contrast with previous studies. This shows us that representing the fundamental physical processes within storms themselves is important and can lead to future changes that are even of the opposite sign".

Study co-author, Professor Hayley Fowler, Professor of Climate Change Impacts, Newcastle University School of Engineering said, "This is just more bad news for critical national infrastructure in northern Europe, after the damning report 'Readiness for storms ahead? Critical national infrastructure in an age of climate change by the Joint Committee on the National Security Strategy last week. Our paper has highlighted new risks from increases in lightning, previously unknown, which will require increased investment in climate adaptation measures. Further analysis is needed of the potential impact of these increases in lightning on energy and other critical infrastructure systems to enable policies and measures to be produced that are locally- and sector-relevant for adaptation planning".

This research is one possible realization of an unmitigated future climate i.e. RCP8.5 scenario. It also shows that uncertainties exist especially in terms of circulation changes.